Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.004353 0.004578 0.004810 0.005066 0.005342 0.005631 0.005956
2025-11-09 0.004027 0.004367 0.004731 0.005152 0.005629 0.006154 0.006777
2025-11-16 0.003751 0.004149 0.004587 0.005111 0.005722 0.006420 0.007282
2025-11-23 0.003560 0.004000 0.004496 0.005103 0.005832 0.006688 0.007784
2025-11-30 0.003367 0.003830 0.004362 0.005027 0.005844 0.006828 0.008124
2025-12-07 0.003208 0.003689 0.004251 0.004965 0.005861 0.006964 0.008456
2025-12-14 0.003096 0.003596 0.004190 0.004956 0.005936 0.007170 0.008882
2025-12-21 0.002928 0.003427 0.004025 0.004808 0.005823 0.007124 0.008966
2025-12-28 0.002852 0.003367 0.003992 0.004821 0.005916 0.007346 0.009419
2026-01-04 0.002801 0.003335 0.003991 0.004874 0.006059 0.007639 0.009986
2026-01-11 0.002717 0.003257 0.003927 0.004840 0.006084 0.007769 0.010325
2026-01-18 0.002650 0.003197 0.003884 0.004830 0.006138 0.007940 0.010730
2026-01-25 0.002576 0.003127 0.003826 0.004800 0.006162 0.008072 0.011090
2026-02-01 0.002551 0.003121 0.003851 0.004881 0.006348 0.008443 0.011841
2026-02-08 0.002482 0.003053 0.003790 0.004842 0.006358 0.008556 0.012191
2026-02-15 0.002429 0.003004 0.003754 0.004835 0.006412 0.008735 0.012658
2026-02-22 0.002355 0.002927 0.003676 0.004765 0.006370 0.008765 0.012876
2026-03-01 0.002291 0.002859 0.003609 0.004708 0.006343 0.008815 0.013132
2026-03-08 0.002247 0.002818 0.003577 0.004699 0.006389 0.008980 0.013594
2026-03-15 0.002160 0.002717 0.003459 0.004562 0.006232 0.008815 0.013463
2026-03-22 0.002129 0.002690 0.003444 0.004574 0.006306 0.009023 0.014012
2026-03-29 0.002111 0.002681 0.003454 0.004623 0.006438 0.009331 0.014765
2026-04-05 0.002068 0.002636 0.003411 0.004592 0.006442 0.009426 0.015128